How the Council will address a substantial growth in the numbers of older people over the coming years will be considered in public by the Wellbeing Policy Development and Scrutiny Committee on 16th November 2012.
The Adult Social Care & housing budget plan is part of the second of four reports which set out the organisation’s financial position and how services will be provided to vulnerable residents over the next three years.
In addition to reduced Government grant levels and rising costs, the care of vulnerable adults faces a ticking demographic time bomb. The number of older people will grow incredibly over the next 20 years.
- In three years, the local increase in the number of over-65s is projected to be 5.6% and the over-85s the figure is 5.8%. This compares with an overall increase of 0.5% in population;
- From now until 2035 the over-65 population is likely to increase by 50%, and the over-85 population is likely to increase by 110% over the same timescale.
Providing more people, who are also living much longer, with health and social care needs will be very expensive with costs locally increasing from £18.2 million (in 2010) to potentially £34.6 million by 2035.
The Council currently spends around 35% of its total gross budget on Adult Social Care and will spend overall £261 million over the next three years on adult social care. This money will be spent to ensure the people most in need are supported to live full, active lives and support older people to live independently.
To help address the demographic time bomb, in addition to the increasing numbers of adults of working age requiring social care, the Council has within its budget earmarked an extra £3.251 million over the next three years. Savings will need to be made in other parts of their budget in order to allocate this money. This will help to:
- Meet the needs of the most vulnerable people and promoting their independence through improved community services to ensure that residents, where possible, stay in the location they want – their own home;
- Ensure that the 3,200 care packages and placements delivered to people in their area each year provide the services that individuals are assessed by the Council as needing and are of good quality;
- Provide the maximum amount of choice for their residents about the packages of care they receive at as early a stage as possible, particularly through their Personal Budget programme which funds around 1,100 people to have greater choice and control over the provider of their care services and the types of service they receive;
- Offer services to keep people independent in their own home for longer, such as Care and Repair providing Home Improvement Agency Services to around 2,000 people a year.
Working with partners, like the local NHS, Sirona Care & Health, Curo Group, and West of England Care and Repair, the Council is able to provide services more efficiently and balance their budget.
For example, the transfer of social care staff into Sirona Care & Health, established one year ago, will deliver annual savings for the Council of £1.9 million by year five of the contract. Savings are also being made through joint commissioning of services with the local NHS. These efficiencies are reinvested into protecting high priority frontline services and help them achieve their savings targets.
Over the coming years, the Council will focus the money it has available on care for the most vulnerable adults to support their independence. There will be an impact on some services which community organisations as well as independent sector organisations provide on their behalf.
In 2014/15, this budget will reduce by around 13% and they will be working closely with providers to understand the effect this may have on organisations and potential opportunities for them to play their part in their refocused services.
